Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Tue Nov 04 2003 07:16 pm

This is curious, all the dimensions in my mini-charts below are either
in, or are stuck in, inflection points at the same time.  Today they are
trendless.

The one I'm watching the most right now is volume.  I want to get a line
on what the basic trading volume is, now that perturbations from the
mutual funds has been silenced.  Today it was -1% below the trailing
30-day moving average.  The moving average is going to wiggle some as
days from six weeks ago keep dropping off the end, but knowing the
current basic activity level enables me to gauge "enthusiasm".  Prices
were pretty calm today.

When it comes to putting money to work, it's the small cap S&P 600 and
NASDAQ which have been the strongest performers attracting all the
attention over the past 6 months.  That's really to be expected as the
economy recovers from a recession.  It's these smaller companies that
can be more nimble, able to react to the improving economy faster.  But
when the economy really finds it's feet, it's the behemoth large cap
companies of the DJIA and S&P 500 that are going to begin to show the
effects of their momentum.  So at this stage it seems smarter to buy
into these under appreciated funds rather than put more into the small
caps which have already run up.  But since the economy isn't humming
yet, and I still have some major issues with how some policies are going
to come down, I'd be more inclined to balance a little more on the
conservative "value" side than the aggresive "growth" side.  And since
I've got my IRA with one of the more conservative larger fund families
that doesn't have a reputation for chasing every last point, I'm not
overly worried about the current scandals affecting me directly.

Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 __>_      <___      __|_      __>_      __>_      ___<     10/29
 _>__      <___      __|_      __>_      _>__      ___<     10/30
 __>_      <___      __|_      __>_      __>_      ___<     10/31
 __>_      |___      __|_      _>__      __|_      ___<     11/03
 _|__      |___      __|_      _|__      __|_      ___|     11/04

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: Buy        Date:  10/01/03 S&P:    1018
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
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