Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Mon Nov 03 2003 05:44 pm

As you can see in the mini-chart below, volume did fall below average
today, but only down to -3%.  So, now the mutual funds are through with
their tax-loss selling.  The market should come back to "normal" with
that resolved.  In today's action prices jumped early up to around the
1060 level and hung there all day in quiet trading.  The Street market
"analysts" attribute that to the ISM manufacturing index being reported
higher than expected, and crowed about prices reaching the highest level
in 17 months.  Yeah, yeah.

OK, so what now?  I still have some of my IRA in money market funds,
because I was afraid the mutual funds might drive the market down
temporarily and I wanted to be able to take advantage of a bargain if it
were to be thrown my way.  But that didn't happen.  Still it made me
unwilling to credit these slowly, unsteadily rising prices since early
August.  It remains to be seen if we'll get a Santa Claus Rally, but it
seems likely we can expect the Bear is asleep in his den.  That's not to
say we should expect a return to the Bubble market of the Clinton years.
By and large Bear Markets are known to be steeper, sharper than Bull
Markets, and Bear Market Bull Traps similarly steeper than true Bull
Markets.  My charts show many examples in the past few years.

Still, I think I'm going to move that money out of cash, and put it back
to work.

Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 __>_      <___      __|_      __>_      _>__      ___<     10/28
 __>_      <___      __|_      __>_      __>_      ___<     10/29
 _>__      <___      __|_      __>_      _>__      ___<     10/30
 __>_      <___      __|_      __>_      __>_      ___<     10/31
 __>_      |___      __|_      _>__      __|_      ___<     11/03

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: Buy        Date:  10/01/03 S&P:    1018
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
.... Zen Druids practice Transcendental Vegetation. ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .