Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Wed Oct 29 2003 07:31 pm

Prices were basically flat, but volume continues a little higher than
earlier this month.  There is some activity from the mutual funds, but
that stops Friday.  They're probably already pretty much done.  In the
past few months we've only occasionally moved 1600Ms.

Compare this year to last October.  We've forgotten the emotion and fear
that dominated investors.  The Bear Market ended in a Triple Bottom
formation, getting down around 800 three times, in late July, in mid-
October, and the last in mid-March.  During the month preceeding the
October low volume was pretty consistently above 1500Ms, above 1800Ms
leading to the low.  So the second plunge certainly brought on a lot of
over-wrought panic selling, it bounced back 100pts in the following
couple weeks.  But the mutual fund managers didn't know where we were
going any more than the rest of us, and I'm sure they didn't wait to
dump stuff they were going to sell anyway.  During the week before and
after the end of the month volume tended to be more like 1400Ms, marking
exhaustion.

In comparison this year they seem to be more willing to hold what they
have.  Changes seem more along the margins, as seen by current volume.
But I'd be willing to bet what they're holding now is far different than
what they had.  You may remember I was advising you to upgrade your
portfolio and look for "Best of Breed" and Blue Chip stocks you might
have thought a few years ago you couldn't afford.  Still, it's worth
doing a price-volume analysis on your stocks now.  See what you can
discover, this chance won't come again for another year.

Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 __<_      _|__      __|_      __|_      _<__      ___|     10/23
 _<__      _<__      __|_      __>_      _<__      ___|     10/24
 __<_      _<__      __|_      _>__      _|__      ___<     10/27
 __>_      <___      __|_      __>_      _>__      ___<     10/28
 __>_      <___      __|_      __>_      __>_      ___<     10/29

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: Buy        Date:  10/01/03 S&P:    1018
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
.... Don't sweat petty things, or pet sweaty things. ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .