Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Fri Oct 24 2003 07:36 pm

The market gapped down again at the open and the DJIA spent most of the
day down 100pts.  Late in the day some buyers showed up, prices and
volume recovered some.  But in the end volume was about average, +4%
above, Down-Volume 2:1 over Up-Volume.

I found more evidence it's the mutual fund managers moving the market.
Look at the number of trades for blocks of over 10,000 shares at a pop:
   10th  13th  14th  15th  16th  17th  20th  21st  22nd  23rd
  15817 15225 18172 22331 20633 17968 15961 22303 25914 24889
Main Street doesn't trade stocks in 10,000 share blocks!

"OK, but my stocks are in good companies that are making money and
aren't going to crater.  I don't want to sell them then see them
recover!"

Watch their action in detail for the past and next week.  If they don't
go down on more than average volume, then the Street still likes them.
So keep them.  But if they drop in higher volume, then they're not loved
anymore.

First of all, this is a market.  Things are worth what somebody will
give you for them, Fundamental Analysis really doesn't count.  Don't you
think the mutual funds can do the fundamental analysis too?  When they
come calling, they get their questions answered by the CEO.  And these
are internal analysts deciding "do WE want it", not the ones in court
who tried to convince you that YOU wanted it.  Yes, they could be wrong,
but that's "betting against the house."

Secondly, even if you're right, it IS a good company, let's not forget
the lesson of Tyco.  It could well become a M&A target.

My point is, marry your wife, not your stocks!  That doesn't mean you
should be a trader, but you need to stay "in the swing" with the
markets.  This is the one time of year when you can see what the big
money managers are doing if you'll look for it.  The rest of the year
you have to wait for 3 months after the fact, when it's no longer
useful.  There are NO "widows and orphans" stocks anymore.  You can't
just BUY them, you also have to SELL them.



Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 __<_      _>__      __|_      _<__      _<__      ___>     10/20
 __|_      _|__      __|_      __|_      _<__      ___>     10/21
 _<__      _|__      __|_      __|_      _<__      ___|     10/22
 __<_      _|__      __|_      __|_      _<__      ___|     10/23
 _<__      _<__      __|_      __>_      _<__      ___|     10/24

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: Buy        Date:  10/01/03 S&P:    1018
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
.... If GOD doesn't like how I live, let HIM tell me ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .