Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Wed Oct 22 2003 07:59 pm

You don't want to know.  It was ugly from the opening bell, real ugly.
"Piling-on" is only a penalty in the NFL.

My formula calls this a "Distribution" day.  Price was down more than
half way to being significant on its own, and volume was up 20% above
average.

I saw an "analysis" that investors were disappointed that earnings,
although good and some better than estimates, weren't keeping up with
the prices they bid stocks up to.  That isn't the way I remember it.

First quarter earnings weren't even in when the Spring Rally began.
Even then I remember a lot of talk that expectations weren't great, "but
wait till the seconf half!"  I remember warning you we'd heard that
before, more than once.  I also remember telling you when the rally
topped-out that we needed a "base building" period, like a Horizontal
Trading Range, to allow us to catch our breath and adapt to the end of
the Bear Market.  And basically, that's just what we got!

The only people I expect who should be disappointed are the ones who
were looking for the resolution of the Flagpole formation to drive the
market up to about 1200 by the end of the year.  But I also remember
warning you not to expect that.

So if that "analysis" was just something to mollify the reporter who
demanded an EXPLANATION, what is it?  Well, we've got a week left for
the mutual fund managers to do their thing.  How about that?  How about
it's just normal market fluctuation?

Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 __>_      _>__      __|_      __<_      __|_      ___>     10/16
 _<__      _>__      __|_      __<_      _<__      ___>     10/17
 __<_      _>__      __|_      _<__      _<__      ___>     10/20
 __|_      _|__      __|_      __|_      _<__      ___>     10/21
 _<__      _|__      __|_      __|_      _<__      ___|     10/22

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: Buy        Date:  10/01/03 S&P:    1018
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
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