Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Mon Oct 13 2003 06:02 pm

"This is yet another example of the media trying to make something out
of nothing."  And, boy, didn't they?  After I wrote that, PBS' Nightly
Business Report and Wall Street Week were trumpting the anniversary.
Hello!  This is the media!  It's their job to get you to believe you
need to pay attention to what they have to peddle.  By the way, that
extends to Rush and everybody else on AM radio talk shows as well.  No,
you need to think for yourself!  That's one reason I try to get this
commentary written before 5PM every day, so my assessment isn't overly
tainted by the news.  When it comes to Wall Street, money isn't to be
made by following the herd!

In today's semi-holiday action, the bond market was closed and volume
was down -23% below average, immediately after the market opened it
gapped up to about the level it was at Thursday afternoon before it fell
off the cliff.  Ostensibly it was caused by some more good news from
Motorola.  Got it wrong again!  Also more media fluff.  It's about
investors extrapolating everything, wringing out the possible
implications for the future and business in general.  That means they
aren't on solid footing, they're anticipating again.  If they get
disappointed they'll drop this puppy in a heart-beat.

Never forget, price action is meaningless on its own.  It has to be
confirmed by significantly higher volume.

Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 __>_      _|__      __|_      _|__      __>_      ___|     10/07
 _>__      _>__      __|_      _|__      __|_      ___|     10/08
 __|_      _>__      __|_      __>_      __|_      ___>     10/09
 _|__      _>__      __|_      _>__      __<_      ___>     10/10
 __|_      _>__      __|_      >___      __|_      ___>     10/13

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: Buy        Date:  10/01/03 S&P:    1018
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
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