Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Thu Oct 09 2003 07:14 pm

This was another of those nasty days when the final numbers DON'T tell
you the story.  Prices gapped up, and immediately rose higher.  They
held there for a couple hours.  Then around mid-morning prices jumped
modestly higher again, on increasing volume.  Then around mid-afternoon
it all fell apart, on the highest volume of the day!  In the end prices
closed modestly higher, and total volume was +15% above average.

Based on the closing numbers it appears to be a positive day for the
Bulls.  I think it really showed the Street is ready, willing and able
to turn on a dime.  What I'm not seeing is any confidence that investors
would feel secure with the market moving higher.  It may happen, but I'd
be very trepidatious about such a move.

I think probably the underlying reasons for this schizophrenic action is
the market is again "priced for perfection" and the Street is looking at
every earnings report being announced to reinforce or challenge these
levels.  It's all about the 30-something traders in those bull-pens
playing "she loves me, she loves me not" fast-twitch games.  If I were a
Dollar Cost Averager of course I'd keep at it--this is all transitory.
But if I were an active investor looking to invest some money right
now--I wouldn't.  I'd wait for all this to die down.

Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 __>_      >___      __|_      __>_      __>_      ___|     10/03
 __>_      |___      __|_      |___      __>_      ___|     10/06
 __>_      _|__      __|_      _|__      __>_      ___|     10/07
 _>__      _>__      __|_      _|__      __|_      ___|     10/08
 __|_      _>__      __|_      __>_      __|_      ___>     10/09

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: Buy        Date:  10/01/03 S&P:    1018
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
.... I talked to GOD yesterday - AND HE'S PISSED! ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .