Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Tue Sep 30 2003 06:49 pm

The market drove off a cliff after it opened.  It hit bottom half an
hour later, and there was a notable spike in volume on the NYSE at that
point.  Guess that was when the floor specialists finally had time to
take care of the public's overnight stop-loss orders.  It tried to
recover, but typically volume is lowest through mid-day and that isn't
going to move the market, so it fell apart in the afternoon.

Now, to be sure, in part this is due to Sun's dropping over 15% at
today's open.  Sun is 0.4% of the NASDAQ-100.  There was certainly some
concern over the implications of it's accounting changes might have to
other companies.  The primary "culprit" is said to be substantially
lower numbers in Consumer Confidence.  Well, DOH!  Is that a surprize?
Do you note any great exuberance in the American public you meet every
day?

My numbers call this another Distribution day.  Prices were down half
way to being significant on their own, and volume was +13% above
average.  But this should be no surprize to you.  I noted the direction
seemed to have turned downward last week.

There's another "dog in the night" that concerns me.  With the trials
finally starting over the looting of certain infamous companies, I'm
afraid there might be something released in testimony that alarms
investors.  You know, like the old saying goes, "you're not paranoid, it
IS as bad as you think and they ARE out to get you."

p.s. None of this is reason you should avoid using stop-loss orders.  If
they're hurting you that much, then you're in the stock too much at the
wrong time.  It isn't the stop-loss losses that's the problem!

Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 _<__      <___      __|_      ___>      _<__      ___>     09/24
 _<__      <___      _|__      __>_      _<__      ___>     09/25
 _<__      <___      _|__      __>_      _<__      ___|     09/26
 __<_      |___      _|__      _>__      _<__      ___|     09/29
 _|__      |___      _|__      __>_      _|__      ___|     09/30

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  09/24/03 S&P:    1009
Winner or Loser:  Winner                By:     +19

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
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