Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Wed Sep 24 2003 05:40 pm

Funny, yesterday I should have suggested, "What dog isn't barking in the
night?  Nobody seems to be fearing a return of the Bear."  This
afternoon I heard one of the analysts on the radio favoring us with his
opinion this has been a Bear Market Rally, and the Bear will return.  He
said he was advising his clients to be conservative.  Well, he's
certainly a contrarian.  Most analysts, including the Fed, are seeing
definite signs of an improving economy.  Me?  You'll note I've yet to
call this another Bull Market.  There are definitely stumbling blocks
ahead.  An $87B bill for Bush's Gulf War II, and $500B deficits for
example.  I don't think being a conservative investor is particularly
bad advice.

A new stumbling block was thrown in front of the Market today, and it
definitely tripped and took some skin off its nose.  My numbers call
this a Distribution day, when sellers were getting rid of stock.  Prices
were down 20pts, when 21pts would be significant, and volume was up +22%
above average.  It caused my timing signal to pop a SELL signal!  This
time following the timing signal was a WINNER.  Now you'd want to ignore
any dithering in the signal.  There's one small problem, figuring out
what's "dithering"?

The culprit was OPEC deciding to reduce production, i.e. raise prices.
Higher prices for oil are generally conceeded to be a drag on the
economy.  Maybe this is just the trigger we need to produce the Fall
Correction?

Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 __>_      _|__      __|_      __|_      __|_      ___>     09/18
 _>__      _>__      __|_      __|_      __>_      ___>     09/19
 _<__      _|__      __|_      _|__      __|_      ___>     09/22
 __<_      |___      __|_      __>_      __|_      ___>     09/23
 _<__      <___      __|_      ___>      _<__      ___>     09/24

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  09/24/03 S&P:    1009
Winner or Loser:  Winner                By:     +19

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
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