Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Mon Sep 22 2003 06:18 pm

I wouldn't make too much of today's negative action.  Prices fell on
news that the G7 meeting called for more float to the Dollar, read
"weaker".  A weaker Dollar means our market was over-priced.  Your first
question should be: "what about volume?"  It fell from +17% above
average Friday to just a skosh, -0%, below average.  So this is another
of those news-driven fluctuations, rather than a wholesale panic.  I'm
still waiting for a September/October correction, but it's very possible
that the mutual fund managers, who drive those things, don't need to
make wholesale changes in portfolios this year.  Main Street may have
dithered as they watched their accounts deflate, but the Wall Street
pro's were minding their's all the way down, and I'm sure restructuring
as they went.

By the way, Mutual funds' cash holdings are down to 4.6%, lowest in at
least 18 months, not so far from the 3/00 low of 4.0%, and a long ways
from 12/90's high of 12.9%.  So the mutual funds are rather "fully
invested" as of last month.  That means they aren't particularly
fearful, though they probably aren't above locking-in some of their
profits, and they don't have a lot of cash at hand to buy new positions
and drive the market on a tear.  But I recall seeing an article very
recently, which I can't find right now, about the amount in "zero-
maturity" accounts, money-market, etc., being very high.  We're the ones
sitting on cash!  That could flow into the market, but if it does, WATCH
OUT!  By the time Main Street arrives, the party is over.

Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 __>_      _<__      __|_      __<_      __|_      ___>     09/16
 _>__      _|__      __|_      __<_      __|_      ___>     09/17
 __>_      _|__      __|_      __|_      __|_      ___>     09/18
 _>__      _>__      __|_      __|_      __>_      ___>     09/19
 _<__      _|__      __|_      _|__      __|_      ___>     09/22

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  08/12/03 S&P:    990
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
.... Seattle: An Indian word meaning 52 degrees and raining. ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .