Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Wed Sep 03 2003 07:12 pm

"The buyers are back, and there's gonna be trouble.
 Hey, yeah.  Hey yeah, the buyers are back!
 If you've been shorting stocks, you better get out on the double.
 Hey, yeah.  Hey yeah, the buyers are back."

This morning's action was marked by moderately rising prices on
noticably higher volume.  At the close volume was up +31%, with
Up-Volume about 2:1 higher than Down-Volume.  That's more enthusiasm
than we've seen in a while.

Now, I'd be a little cautious about jumping in and grabbing stock with
both fists.  There's still time for an October correction.  Personally,
I'm keeping my powder dry just a little longer.  This is no more than
the first "letter of intent".

We've just been put on notice that the Bulls may have been resting
during the heat of the summer, but aren't ready to be put out to
pasture.  I saw headlines today about this being the highest close since
mid-June last year.  That means nothing to me.  Then we were falling
fast with no bottom in sight.  There's nothing of technical significance
in that.  I'd pay more attention to mid-June THIS year.  The last three
months or so looks like what the technicians call "base building".

Several weeks ago I pointed out a potential flagpole, with a triangular
pennant at the top.  I thought it was more wishful thinking than
anything, especially when the bottom support line was penetrated.  I
dismissed it.  Maybe I was wrong.  A convinced technician could have
drawn in a rectangular pennant.  Now he's looking for a duplication of
the flagpole.  Starting where?  The March low of 801?  That would put
prices around 1200 before they slowed down again.  That's higher than we
began last year.  I think that's a bit "optimistic".  Maybe the May dip
around 920, so 1100 or so?  Maybe.  We could do that by the end of the
month and still have an October correction.

That's all purely speculation.  But it's the sort of thing "advisors"
make their living prognosticating.  Stuff like that HAS happened before,
that's where technicians get these "rules".  But there's no imperative
to it at all.  Stay conservative in your investing.  This isn't going to
be the mid-90's Bubble again.

Just remember we began the year at 909, so it's been a good year so far.

Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 __<_      |___      __|_      _<__      __<_      __>_     08/27
 __>_      |___      __|_      _<__      __|_      __>_     08/28
 __>_      >___      __|_      <___      __>_      ___>     08/29
 __>_      _>__      __|_      __<_      ___>      ___>     09/02
 __>_      _>__      __|_      ___|      ___>      ___>     09/03

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  08/12/03 S&P:    990
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
.... If we agree on everything, one of us isn't thinking. ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .