Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Fri Aug 22 2003 05:33 pm

This morning Intel released some hopeful projections.  Some on the
Street took that as positive for the economy and gapped the market
higher as soon as it opened.  Cooler heads used the opportunity to
unload stock, and the market promptly tanked on brisk volume.

Coincidentally, a front page story in today's IBD is under the headline,
"Fewer Americans Planning To Buy PCs; Market May Be Saturated, Analysts
Say".  As Homer would say, "Doh!"  I've told you that a few times over
the past couple years.  I compared the PC market to the automobile
market of Henry Ford's day and today.  I advised you I would NOT be
looking at Intel, Microsoft, Sun, Cisco, Dell, et al, for the sort of
growth going forward that they made their reputation on.

Beyond that, I was making another point.  Amateur investors tend to
stick with stocks that once made great gains long after that's just
"faded glory".  The market doesn't work like that.  Generally savvy
investors school themselves to avoid the stocks which made the last Bull
Market in the next Bull Market.  One might think of it as "lightning
striking twice..."

I see today's action as a sign of impatience by newbies and the thirty-
something traders on the Street who don't have experience in how the
market recovers.  They don't know what "base building" is, or don't have
the patience to wait for it.  All I've suggested is shopping around for
companies that might make it to your shopping list, so you are prepared
when the next sustainable rally comes; late autumn, I hope.  Of course,
don't take a bath in the next correction either--know what you have to
jetison too.  I'm expecting the correction first, in the next 6-10
weeks.

I can tell you this right now, at the end of the year I'm going to be SO
satisfied if it all goes as I expect, that is, a very traditional
progression of the year.  I'd rather NOT see charging 8-year Bull
markets followed by raging 3-year Bear markets that take it away, thank
you very much!  Just give me nice and normal, sedate and predictable.

Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 __>_      |___      __|_      _<__      __>_      __|_     08/18
 __>_      |___      __|_      _<__      __>_      __|_     08/19
 _>__      >___      __|_      _<__      __>_      __>_     08/20
 __>_      >___      __|_      __<_      __>_      __>_     08/21
 _<__      >___      __|_      _|__      __|_      __>_     08/22

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  08/12/03 S&P:    990
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
.... We have standards and expect you not to exceed them. ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .