Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Thu Aug 21 2003 06:34 pm

On the car radio early this afternoon I heard the market closed up a
little, that volume was up and up-volume beat down-volume by 2:1.  That
was before I saw the intraday chart and what went on this morning while
I was in the garden.

OK, here's what I was thinking while I was in the truck.  Volume was up,
+7% above average, so we had some buyers in the market for a change.
But since prices were little changed, sellers were just about as eager.
It's speculation, but what are we to think about the motivation of those
buyers?  I'd guess the stock pickers were accumulating inventory.  On
the other side, it certainly wasn't panic selling.  Well, we still need
to see what's going to happen when the mutual funds clean things up for
their fiscal year end in October.

Then I saw the intraday chart, and the most noticable thing was a quick,
sharp drop in mid-morning on a spike in volume.  Prices made it back for
the afternoon session.  That's a bit of a concern.  So I'd say today's
action wasn't as good as it seemed.

Weekly I track my mutual funds on a spreadsheet.  I compute a 5%
exponential moving average on the week to week percentage change.  Often
I just look at a summary.  I was a little shocked to notice that looking
at the results sheet, it was predominately in the black!  It's been so
long since I saw that, it was noticably different.

Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 __>_      |___      __|_      <___      __>_      __<_     08/15
 __>_      |___      __|_      _<__      __>_      __|_     08/18
 __>_      |___      __|_      _<__      __>_      __|_     08/19
 _>__      >___      __|_      _<__      __>_      __>_     08/20
 __>_      >___      __|_      __<_      __>_      __>_     08/21

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  08/12/03 S&P:    990
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
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