Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Tue Aug 12 2003 07:54 pm

Everybody said the Fed wasn't going to do anything at the FOMC meeting
today.  (I told you the Fed was basically a non-issue months ago.  And
I told you that day would come before they began cutting rates a couple
years ago.)  Still by looking at the intra-day chart it was obvious
everybody was waiting for them to do nothing.  Prices were flat,
exceptionally so during mid-day.  And volume was virtually non-existant!
Through mid-day only about 1Ms traded every 5 minutes.  But then about
2:15 volume came back, and by 3:00 prices followed.  Apparently the Fed
said they're going to hold this line on short-term rates for, hopefully,
the next year or so.

Well, that's fine for short-term rates.  Long-term rates are going to be
influenced by the Treasury's borrowing to finance the big tax cut the
Congresscritters passed for the Administration.  A poll in today's IBD
shows the short-term pop in consumer confidence in May from the tax cut
bill has worn off.  So now we have mortgaged the future, we were told it
would stimulate the economy, but Americans aren't seeing any benefit.

Still, today's little pop in prices prompted my Timing Signal to pop a
BUY signal.  But since total volume today was -17% below average and
there's no other reason to suggest a rally in the offing, even if the
Oscillator climbed above the line today, I'd pass on this one.

Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 __<_      >___      _|__      __<_      <___      __<_     08/06
 __<_      >___      _|__      _<__      _|__      __<_     08/07
 __|_      >___      _|__      <___      _>__      __<_     08/08
 __>_      |___      _|__      <___      _>__      __<_     08/11
 __>_      <___      __|_      _<__      __>_      __<_     08/12

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  08/12/03 S&P:    990
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
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