Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Wed Jul 30 2003 07:21 pm

Today the market was basically flat and volume was -3% below average.
There's really nothing to say about that sort of action.

On a different subject, after my crystal ball rolled off the desk and I
tried to glue it together with super glue, it had lots of funny
reflections.  It has to do with the index of refraction in different
materials.

But I got a glimpse today about when the next Bull Market will start!
Do you want to know that?

It started when I saw a headline about disappointment over tech earnings
reported recently.  I twisted my crystal ball this way and that.  It
showed me the next Bull Market will really begin when investors get over
the bubble and with clear eyes can see the economy and earnings as they
relate to the "present" situation.  As long as they keep expecting
things to be like they were, they're going to be disappointed, and the
resulting market will be a whipsawing of rallys and corrections.
Traders can make money in that sort of market, as long as they're in the
swing of things.  But if they get out of step, they'll lose big.

Ultimately the value of owning equity in businesses is a combination of
the fundamental ability of business to earn money, and the enthusiasm
investors have in paying for that ownership.  The money making ability
ultimately is based on increasing population needing more products and
services.  That's what underlies the economy.  But I said nothing about
national borders.  Politics distorts that simplicity.

The major factor causing the falling consumer confidence reported
yesterday was employment.  There are authoritative estimates that the
actual current unemployment rate is between 10%-12%--double what the
Labor Department reports.  You'd better believe that's going to affect
the economy, earnings, and the market.

It's that enthusiasm for owning equities that's affected by investors
attitudes being distorted by their expectations that the bubble was the
natural order of things, or that the subsequent bear market proves that
investing is too risky for reasonable people.

I think my funky, broken crystal ball has shown me what's going to be
dictating the market action for the next several years.  All I need to
learn is how to make money in that environment.

Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 _<__      |___      __|_      __|_      |___      ___<     07/24
 __>_      |___      __|_      _|__      _>__      ___<     07/25
 _>__      |___      __|_      _|__      _>__      ___<     07/28
 _|__      <___      __|_      __|_      _|__      ___<     07/29
 _|__      <___      __|_      _|__      _|__      ___<     07/30

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  07/22/03 S&P:    988
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
.... But soft! What light through yonder window breaks? ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .