Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Tue Jul 29 2003 06:52 pm 

If there's one thing one won't find on the Market's trading floor, it's
dogmatism.  Strong beliefs, an unwillingness to accept things as they
are, is a prime way to lose money.  So traders and professional
investors can and will change direction "on a dime".  So knowing what
they are doing now, being able to infer from their actions what they're
thinking and feeling, is only of value to the extent that nothing
happens to change their minds.

But I think today does reveal something of their attitude.  About 10AM
the news that Consumer Confidence took a big drop hit the Street.  Over
the next 15 minutes the DJIA dropped about 70pts!  Volume spiked, with
8Ms trading in one 5 minute period.  That's "determined" selling.  Just
before noon it had fought back to nearly even, but volume was subdued.
I find that revealing.  The prevailing mood in the Market is profit
taking, not bargain hunting.

Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 __|_      |___      __|_      _<__      |___      ___<     07/23
 _<__      |___      __|_      __|_      |___      ___<     07/24
 __>_      |___      __|_      _|__      _>__      ___<     07/25
 _>__      |___      __|_      _|__      _>__      ___<     07/28
 _|__      <___      __|_      __|_      _|__      ___<     07/29

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  07/22/03 S&P:    988
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
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