Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Thu Jul 17 2003 07:11 pm

In case I've been too subtle, my formulas called today a "Distribution
Day" where investors were "distributing", i.e. selling, stock.  Some
call every day with volume increasing from yesterday either accumulation
or distribution.  I prefer fewer but more significant signals.  So I
insist on a price change at least halfway to being significant on its
own, and volume at least +10% above AVERAGE!  This way I filter out more
or less normal market volatility.

We've basically been stalled at this level for about six weeks, that's
made the the volatility indicator decidedly low.  Volatility causes the
price change my formulas consider "significant" to rise or fall a bit.
Usually it's been around 25-26pts, today 22pts.  Today's 12pts fall is
more than 11pts.  Today's volume was +16% above average.

What does it mean?  It all depends.  If you're a Momentum Player, you
probably don't want to be long.  If you're a Value Investor, then you
probably should be reviewing your shopping list and looking for a buying
opportunity to come.

I've still got my pencil line down at 935.  If it bounced somewhere
between 935-950, I'd feel it was a "healthy correction".  If it kept
falling, then I'd wonder if it has been just another trap.

Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 __<_      |___      __|_      _<__      _<__      ___<     07/11
 __<_      |___      __|_      _<__      _|__      ___<     07/14
 _|__      |___      __|_      __<_      _|__      ___<     07/15
 _|__      |___      __|_      __<_      |___      ___<     07/16
 _<__      <___      __|_      __|_      <___      ___<     07/17

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  04/01/03 S&P:    858
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
.... Of Course I'm Sane. The Voices Said So.... ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .