Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Wed Jul 16 2003 07:11 pm 

If you look at an intraday chart from this morning you'l notice a sharp
drop just after 10AM with a spike in volume.  That's a sign of
determined selling.  For the day as a whole prices were down a little,
but volume was up +16% above average.  That's called a Bearish
Divergence.

I see that as indication that while a month ago investors were more
disposed to accumulate on any indecision, now they're predisposed to
take the money and run.

Are they right?  Well, they can create a self-fulfilling prophecy.  But
the question presumes there is a "right direction", and the only judge
of that would be some "fundamental analysis".  Even if one got that
right, it ignores the fact that in an open market things are worth just
what someone will give.  It also ignores a tactical move.  If one could
predict from fundamental analysis that prices should be higher, but they
seem to be going in the other direction, smart tactics would dictate one
not buy now (allowing prices to fall from lack of demand in the old
supply and demand equation) but wait for better bargains.

As an investor questions of "right and wrong" are always wrong.  They're
usually a good way to lose money.

Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 _|__      |___      __|_      |___      _|__      ___<     07/10
 __<_      |___      __|_      _<__      _<__      ___<     07/11
 __<_      |___      __|_      _<__      _|__      ___<     07/14
 _|__      |___      __|_      __<_      _|__      ___<     07/15
 _|__      |___      __|_      __<_      |___      ___<     07/16

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  04/01/03 S&P:    858
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
.... I'm almost certain Heisenberg was correct. ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .