Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Tue Jul 08 2003 08:07 pm

Today is one of those when I have to keep in mind just what my numbers
are measuring.  The most reliable measure of volume generally available
is NYSE volume.  But what can one use for the corresponding prices?  The
DJIA is only 30 of those stocks, albeit still a major portion of the
volume.  But rather than representing prices with the NYSE Composite
Index, I prefer to use the S&P 500 as a better representation of "the
Market".  About 5 years ago S&P began adding more NASDAQ/OTC stocks to
the index--you know, companies like Microsoft, Intel, Sun, and such.

Well, today the S&P 500 was up, mostly on the strength of the NASDAQ/OTC.
The DJIA was flat.  NYSE volume was +5% above average.  Now, that's not
a lot.  It doesn't make a significant statement about enthusiasm.

It seems to me it's consistent with a viewpoint of some nervousness
about the current levels, but some hope that earnings reports which
began today signal an improvement in things to come.

A couple months ago I noted investors seemed to be focused only on the
very short-term outlook, unwilling to risk much on the future.  It
certainly seems like that has changed.  Amazing what a 25% recovery can
do for one's outlook.  ;-)

Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 __|_      <___      __|_      _|__      _|__      ___<     07/01
 __|_      <___      __|_      _|__      _>__      ___<     07/02
 _>__      |___      __|_      |___      _>__      ___<     07/03
 __>_      |___      __|_      _<__      _>__      ___<     07/07
 __>_      |___      __|_      __<_      _|__      ___<     07/08

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  04/01/03 S&P:    858
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
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