Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Mon Jul 07 2003 06:41 pm

I'm starting to see the term Bull Market being thrown around.  That's a
bit of a concern.  The more convinced Main Street investors become of
that, the more they want to buy, and the more the professional investors
sell into that demand, taking their profits, albeit in a manner that
keeps prices rising.  When they are out of inventory, then they need to
restock, so to speak.  The Street will begin supplying the demand in
excess by shorting.  That can drive prices into a correction.  But maybe
the Bulls have an appetite for all that stock, leading to a "short
squeeze" and even higher prices.  If that happens then Wall Street will
start looking for reasonably valued stocks in unpopular sectors to buy.
This will cause "sector rotation", and the indices will stall--giving us
a chance to re-evaluate.  That's how the game is played on Wall Street.

Recognize it's a game and don't believe everything you hear about the
condition of the Market.  The fact is, it's too soon to know if this is
a new Bull Market, we're not sure yet about the state of the economic
recovery, and whether the Market really reflects fair value for this
economy.

Today prices were nicely higher, continuing the recovery from last
week's minor correction, but volume was -4% below average.

Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 _<__      <___      __|_      __|_      _>__      ___<     06/30
 __|_      <___      __|_      _|__      _|__      ___<     07/01
 __|_      <___      __|_      _|__      _>__      ___<     07/02
 _>__      |___      __|_      |___      _>__      ___<     07/03
 __>_      |___      __|_      _<__      _>__      ___<     07/07

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  04/01/03 S&P:    858
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
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