Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Mon Jun 23 2003 08:08 pm

>My guess is higher by yearend with volatility in the middle. What is your
>guess by then?
>

It all depends on these things improving the economy and earnings.  I
think my opinion for the year is best shown by the fact that I
reallocated a couple weeks ago putting about half the cash in my
retirement funds back into equities, planning to do the other half this
summer.

But then, we've been faked out a few times in the past few years,
expecting economic and market improvements "in the second half."
Today's paper reports mortgage foreclosures are up to 1.2% in Q1.
In a period of record low mortgage interest rates, that seems like a
high number to me.  I don't think that's a good sign.

Over the longer term though I have some fundamental concerns.  America's
economy, even role in the world, is dependent on American workers having
good paying jobs and maintaining their standard of living.  The long
term trend we've seen in American business (short term orientation,
outsourcing, flattening structures, etc.) is troubling.  I realize the
inequities between America's and the third world's standards of living
weren't sustainable or desireable for political stability.  On the other
hand, without America in this role, the rest of the world wouldn't be
able to make it up.  I can't tell how this is going to work out.

More foreign investment is going to China than the US.  Where would
Great Britain be today if they hadn't found the North Sea oil?  No
country has yet had a permanent role as world leader.

Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 __>_      __>_      ___>      __<_      __<_      ___>     06/17
 _>__      __>_      __>_      _<__      _<__      ___>     06/18
 _|__      __<_      __>_      __|_      _<__      ___|     06/19
 __<_      _<__      __>_      __|_      _<__      ___|     06/20
 _<__      _<__      __>_      _>__      <___      ___|     06/20

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  04/01/03 S&P:    858
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
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