Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Fri Jun 13 2003 07:58 pm

Lately, we've been seeing more reports pointing to the fact that major
Market indices are up 21-28% from the March lows.  Is that relevant?

What's the point?  That it means investors have handsome profits to
take?  Certainly there were nearly 1400Ms traded March 11th, when the
S&P hit 801.  But how many individual investors were "in" the Market
then?  YOU?  I know I was waiting, not for a 1-day reversal--seen lots
of those--but for some indication that the Bear had really crawled back
in his den.  And I'm still a bit less than 100% sure of that!

My point is: part of taking responsibility for our investments means we
have to search for understanding, analyze what we discover, and be
prepared to discard what is really worthless.

Now here's something to think about.

If you follow the Market you know that home builders have been the big
winners lately.  With mortgage rates at historic lows, that's no
surprize.  Now, we also know the Fed is concerned that this economy
could still fall on its butt!  The Street is betting the Fed is likely
to drop short term rates once more.

Either what the Fed fears comes to pass and we relive the 30's again, or
the economy recovers and the future direction of interest rates is
higher.

Since this is NOT the time to be buying those stocks to take advantage
of the lower interest rates, what industries have similar potential for
major profits if interest rates begin climbing as much as they've
fallen?  We've got time to think about this and prepare.  First, we need
to see the Fed's fears resolved.  But the day will come.


Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 _<__      _>__      __>_      _>__      __<_      ___>     06/09
 __<_      __>_      __>_      _>__      __<_      ___>     06/10
 __<_      __>_      __>_      __|_      __<_      ___>     06/11
 __|_      __>_      __>_      __|_      __|_      ___>     06/12
 _>__      __>_      __>_      _|__      _|__      ___>     06/13

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  04/01/03 S&P:    858
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
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