Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Tue Jun 10 2003 07:02 pm

Prices were up modestly today, but NYSE volume was down -14% below
average.  So there's little to be learned, except that neither buyers
nor sellers were overly enthusiastic.

Now, one of the problems with the numbers I use is that they don't all
match-up exactly.  I consider the S&P-500 the best single measure of the
Market, more representitive than the DJIA-30 or NASDAQ-100.  Until a few
years ago the major S&P-500 stocks were on the NYSE.  Then during the
bubble, when OTC stocks became a significant proportion of total
investment value, S&P changed the mix to include more OTC/NASDAQ stocks,
just in time for the crash.  It used to be that the NYSE volume, which
is readily available, was a good representation of the S&P-500 volume,
which isn't.  These days a significant proportion of S&P-500 value still
comes from big NASDAQ stocks, like Microsoft and Intel, if not Sun and
JDSUniphase.  Many days NASDAQ volume surpasses the NYSE.  These days it
seems the NYSE and NASDAQ are out of step, one up when the other is
down.  Still, NYSE volume is a good representation of investor
enthusiasm.

Likewise, using the NYSE Advances & Declines might be different than the
NASDAQ, but still it's a good representation of how willing investors
are to spread their money around.

It really doesn't matter--nothing we can do, even if we had precise
numbers can predict the future.  I'm not even trying.  All this is about
is trying to get indications of what the Market IS DOING.  What it means
is a mysterious matter for the "little grey cells".

p.s.  How long do you think it will be before copies of Martha Stewart's
mug shots turn up on eBay?  "How the mighty have fallen."

Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 __>_      _>__      ___>      __>_      ___>      ___>     06/04
 __>_      _>__      ___>      __>_      ___|      ___>     06/05
 _>__      _>__      __>_      ___>      ___|      ___>     06/06
 _<__      _>__      __>_      _>__      __<_      ___>     06/09
 __<_      __>_      __>_      _>__      __<_      ___>     06/10

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  04/01/03 S&P:    858
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
.... Editing is a rewording activity. ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .