Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Thu Jun 05 2003 06:46 pm

To quote a recent President, "This will not stand!"  I've mentioned
before I collect the Thursday closing prices on certain mutual funds of
interest for my retirement accounts, and then run a 5% exponential
moving average on the weekly rate of change.  I had to smile when
today's numbers showed rates that projected for a year would be in the
up 30-40% range.  Not this year!

Yesterday morning the DJIA quickly ran up to the 9,000 level and hovered
there most of the day.  When the big boys did their resolution at the
end of the day, their demand ran it up a little more.  But there's a
long standing observation that round numbers have psychological
importance, becoming either resistance or support.  Today it also looked
like the Street wasn't sure what to do--prices hovered right around that
level.  The question of the day seemed to be, "Do we really want to be
up here?".  Well, don't look now but the S&P is at 990, knocking on the
door of 1,000.

The action today was one of those things I saw coming and warned you
about a couple weeks ago: prices were little changed, but volume was up
+17% above average.  SOMEBODY was moving stock, but it was just what was
necessary to satify demand; no more, to drive prices down, and no less,
to drive them up.  Who does that?  Who was selling?  I think it was the
Street pros.  Headline in today's IBD: "Buyers Rush Into Stocks Again".
If you're "rushing in" it's because you weren't in, and that can't be
said of the Wall Street gang!

Other items of note:  "Service sector Picking Up Pace."  Yeah, but
service sector jobs aren't what you build an economy on--they amount to
"taking in each other's laundry."  "Mortgage applications surged 13.6%
to a new high in the week ended May 30.  Record low mortgage rates drove
both the purchase and refinancing indexes [sic] to all time highs."
Aside from someone failing English class, there's only so far that horse
can run!  And I am reminded to point out that the "7% Solution" DOES NOT
mean sell after a 7% fall from a new recent high, unless you bought in
too late.  Newsletter writers are about 60% Bullish and 20% Bearish.
That is typically a contrary indicator.  It doesn't mean the rally is
over, but we ought to keep watch--if rally turning points are important
in your strategy.

Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 __>_      >___      __|_      __>_      __|_      ___|     05/30
 __>_      _>__      __|_      __>_      __|_      ___>     06/02
 __>_      _>__      __|_      _>__      __|_      ___>     06/03
 __>_      _>__      ___>      __>_      ___>      ___>     06/04
 __>_      _>__      ___>      __>_      ___|      ___>     06/05

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  04/01/03 S&P:    858
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
.... Therefore seek not to know for whom the bell tolls... ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .