Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Wed Jun 04 2003 09:10 pm

"'But, Holmes, the dog did nothing in the night.'  'Yes, that was the
curious thing.'"  You may have noticed one thing I haven't done in my
commentary--I haven't brought myself to curse this Market by calling it
a "Bull Market".  Rising prices isn't all it takes to call a positive
Market a "Bull".  The Bull has to have legs!

Except for a one-day quick reversal, my timing signal called for a Buy
on St Patrick's Day, March 17th.  The Oscillator went positive a month
earlier, and only dipped below the line for a few days during last
month's minor correction.  The Summation Index went positive at the end
of October, and while it faded early this year, it hasn't fallen below
the line.  It's now above 6,000, and I consider the Market 2,500 as a
very positive, "Bullish", level.  I'm getting a nose-bleed at these
heights!

I won't yet curse it, even though I did some reallocation this week. ;-)
It hasn't been even three months yet.  That makes it a rally in my book.
I think what I want to see is how it performs this summer.  To be sure,
we're due for a correction, but a short sharp correction is different
than the typical "summer doldrums".  I've got more cash that I want to
reallocate.  I was only prompted to act now because I was afraid to let
it get too far away from me.  My mutual fund signals turned positive a
month ago.  But we've seen these Bull Traps before.

Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 _>__      |___      __|_      __>_      __|_      ___|     05/29
 __>_      >___      __|_      __>_      __|_      ___|     05/30
 __>_      _>__      __|_      __>_      __|_      ___>     06/02
 __>_      _>__      __|_      _>__      __|_      ___>     06/03
 __>_      _>__      ___>      __>_      ___>      ___>     06/04

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  04/01/03 S&P:    858
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
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