Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Mon Jun 02 2003 07:58 pm

We all know that inside the Washington Beltway when the Congresscritters
increase the budget, but less than projections, they call it a "budget
cut".  Well, it looks like those newsbots have migrated to Wall Street.
I saw headlines today that the ISM manufacturing index was up and that
it was down.  They can't BOTH be right!

The number was 49.4 in May, up from 45.4 in April.  So it's UP, right?
Wrong!  Any number below 50 means manufacturing is shrinking, not
growing.  So manufacturing was DOWN, NOT UP!  It may be that it didn't
contract in as steep a rate as it has this spring, but it still fell.

In today's action volume was still +15% above average, but prices only
gained 3pts.  That's the sort of thing the Street does before a
correction--sell stock into the demand, taking profits, but not so much
stock that the supply drives prices down.  Only a floor trader can tread
that line so precisely.

Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 __>_      <___      __|_      __>_      __>_      ___|     05/27
 __>_      |___      __|_      __>_      __>_      ___|     05/28
 _>__      |___      __|_      __>_      __|_      ___|     05/29
 __>_      >___      __|_      __>_      __|_      ___|     05/30
 __>_      _>__      __|_      __>_      __|_      ___>     06/02

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  04/01/03 S&P:    858
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
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