Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Thu May 22 2003 07:30 pm Oops, I guess when I couldn't connect yesterday I forgot to try again later. 

Well, today's action ended up basically flat.  Prices were up only 3pts
and volume only +2% above average.

I'm still concerned about the volume action during this rally.  After
the March low, volume, which had been falling since January into the
low, picked up to a day above 1,600Ms and a week later a day above
1,800Ms.  But during last year's Double Bottoms volume was often over
2,000Ms, so beaten-down investors were hardly "wildly enthusiastic".  My
30-day Moving Average of volume was a bit above 1,300Ms at that point.
Since, it has gradually climbed but has never gotten above 1,400Ms.
Now, perhaps this caution is understandable after three years of mauling
by the Bear.  Still, it speaks to me of a natural "bounce-back" from an
"oversold" conditions, not an obvious Bull Market.

I'm still cautious.  I'm still looking to do some reallocation out of
money-market funds, but I'm still thinking I can get some bargains this
summer.  And if we've been faked out yet once again with a Bear Market
Bull Trap, well, being a little cautious now wouldn't hurt.  I DON'T
expect a raging Bull Market is going to get away from me anytime soon.

I was pleased to hear Greenspan is ready to take action against
deflation.

Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 __|_      _<__      __>_      __|_      __|_      ___>     05/15
 _<__      _<__      __>_      __|_      __<_      ___>     05/16
 <___      <___      __>_      _|__      _<__      ___>     05/19
 _<__      <___      __>_      __|_      _<__      ___>     05/20
 __<_      <___      __|_      __>_      _<__      ___>     05/21

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  04/01/03 S&P:    858
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
.... With 'er 'ead tooked underneath 'er arm, she walks the bl ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .