Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Tue May 20 2003 06:32 pm

I don't put much faith in conspiracy theories, just in self-interest.
The Street knows how to profit from either rallies or corrections, Bull
or Bear Markets.  They also know that by pandering to the newsbots need
for a quick sound-bite, they can influence the behavior of Main Street
investors, causing Main Street investors to buy or sell at inopportune
times, allowing the professionals to profit.

While I don't think yesterday's action NECESSARILY marks the end of this
significant rally, and I don't think anyone but a day-trader should be
responding reflexively, I do think it's wise to be cautious if you are
holding recent positions.  If I had profits I'd be tempted to take them.
We are due for a correction.  The 7% Solution still applies--if prices
drop -7% from your purchase price, BAIL!  My long term Declining Tops
Line, which I used to mark the Bear Market is just above 900.  If prices
fell below, then it reopens the question whether the Bear Market is
really over.  We don't need that.  Look at what happened last year
during March!

Today's action held its own during the morning, but fell during early
afternoon on increasing volume.  We finished about flat, but with +7%
greater than average volume.  That's not particularly encouraging.

Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 _>__      _<__      __>_      _|__      __|_      ___>     05/14
 __|_      _<__      __>_      __|_      __|_      ___>     05/15
 _<__      _<__      __>_      __|_      __<_      ___>     05/16
 <___      <___      __>_      _|__      _<__      ___>     05/19
 _<__      <___      __>_      __|_      _<__      ___>     05/20

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  04/01/03 S&P:    858
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
.... If it works the first time, quit testing it. ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .