Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Mon May 19 2003 06:43 pm

"Panic on the Street!"  That's what some of the newsbots would have you
believe.  "The sky is falling!  The sky is falling!"  Umm, if that's
true, did my numbers call this a "Distribution Day"?  Nope.  Look at the
volume indicator below--it's on the negative side, or below average.  As
a matter of fact, it was -3% below average.  The price change was
significant in itself, -23pts, and with volatility as low as it has
been, the significance level has drifted a little below the usual 25pts
to 23pts.  So, according to my way of figuring things, it wasn't a good
day, but not yet reason for panic.  A Distribution Day is falling prices
on higher volume.  Haven't I been warning you that we were due for a
correction?

"$14 Bil Swing Into Stock Funds" in April, and $9billion into bond funds
in March as interest rates reach record lows.  Late to the party again!
That's why the public has a reputation for being a contrarian indicator.
I warned you to get out of bond funds several months ago.  The Fed is
expected to MAYBE drop short term rates once more sometime this summer.
But if so, it's entirely possible that longer term rates might rise.
The "Bond Ghouls" rationale is that another rate cut is only because the
economy is worse than expected, so they want more for their cash.  I
think the greater risk is for interest rates to rise from here causing
bond funds to lose your principal.  As Will Rogers said, "I'm more
interested in the return OF my money than the return ON my money."

"Japan Has No GDP Growth In Q1".  It could happen to us too!  The big
mistake the Japanese made was: in the 80's when everybody was looking up
to Japan, they took their good fortune as a sign that they were doing
everything right.  They refused to do the necessary self-reflection when
the cracks began appearing.  Americans aren't strangers to that sort of
superiority complex.  After the past few years I shouldn't have to
remind you what goes up can also go down.  Never forget you're going to
have to "play an end-game" with your investment strategy.

Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 _>__      _<__      __>_      _|__      __|_      ___>     05/13
 _>__      _<__      __>_      _|__      __|_      ___>     05/14
 __|_      _<__      __>_      __|_      __|_      ___>     05/15
 _<__      _<__      __>_      __|_      __<_      ___>     05/16
 <___      <___      __>_      _|__      _<__      ___>     05/19

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  04/01/03 S&P:    858
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
.... If it works the first time, quit testing it. ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .