Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Fri May 16 2003 08:04 pm

Well, the Bulls aren't finished yet.  Prices were up, and so was volume.
Now, both were modest: the prices were up by only +0.3 of what I'd
consider significant, and volume was up only +4% above average.  It's
much too soon to talk about a Bull Market.  Falling back below my old
Declining Tops Bear Market Resistance Line isn't beyond possibility.
But this is the sort of action we see in Bull Markets.

The problem is that when we get high enough off the March "bottom" to
begin to attract the attention of the Main Street amateur investor, Wall
Street investors will have good profits and will sell into that demand.
That will drive down prices.  The amateur will get stung once again.

Now, you may have noticed that only recently have I been willing to
consider the probability that we've seen the Bear's backside.  I've been
warning for the past couple years to stay out of the line of fire in
Bear Markets, but get your head up out of your foxhole when it seems
like the shooting has stopped.  I'm telling you to forget about the
"dead", avoid the "walking wounded", but recruit from the survivors.  I
hope you've kept your list up to date.  But I'm not shouting "buy, buy,
buy", even though my timing signal did so a month and a half ago.  I
think tough times are still ahead.  But I think now we can consider some
careful investing, bearing in mind that future corrections are
guaranteed, sometime.  And I could be wrong about the Bear being back in
his den--I ain't following him in there just to see!

Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 __<_      _<__      __>_      _>__      __<_      ___>     05/09
 __>_      _<__      __>_      _>__      __|_      ___>     05/12
 _>__      _<__      __>_      _|__      __|_      ___>     05/13
 _>__      _<__      __>_      _|__      __|_      ___>     05/14
 __|_      _<__      __>_      __|_      __|_      ___>     05/15

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  04/01/03 S&P:    858
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
.... A good pun is its own reword. ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .