Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Thu May 08 2003 06:55 pm

Today's action was interesting.  It would be nice to know the timing of
news that hit the Street.  The Market fell about 5pts on the open, and
after a half hour of further drifting gained it all back.  It held on
until lunch time, and then things collapsed and it gave it all back, and
then some.  It just seems to me that the Street was back in "reaction
mode", drifting with whatever momentary news circulates.  Overall volume
was down -4% below average, so the falling prices aren't particularly
negative.

Maybe this is the start of the correction I was asking for.  But, mind
you, I'm particular about how it happens!  I want to see another 20-
30pts, and I want noticably less than average volume.  That is, no
increase in selling, just buyers pausing for a while.  It would be
interesting to see if investors are easily shaken and take what profits
they can.  The summer season is coming, and we've seen over the years
the Market has difficulty mounting a sustained rally during the summer.
But I'm more interested in timing a reallocation heavier in equities.
I think this Bear is getting a little long in the tooth.

Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 __|_      _|__      __>_      __|_      ___|      ___>     05/02
 _|__      _>__      __>_      __|_      __|_      ___>     05/05
 __>_      _>__      __>_      __|_      ___|      ___>     05/06
 _|__      _>__      __>_      __|_      __|_      ___>     05/07
 _<__      _|__      __>_      _|__      __<_      ___>     05/08

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  04/01/03 S&P:    858
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
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