Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Tue Apr 29 2003 07:18 pm

I don't think you need to "watch the tape" to be a good investor.  For
some it might even be a bad thing, if it makes one too short-term
oriented.  On the other hand, sometimes looking at the intra-day price
and volume together can be very revealing.

This morning just after the Market opened some new Consumer Confidence
data was released, and it looked good.  The Bulls took that as an excuse
to go on a buying spree.  The trouble was there were a lot of willing
sellers.  The old Supply and Demand Equation took over and prices were
driven right back down below opening prices.  Volume was noticably
higher throughout the episode.

Now, I'm not going to argue who's right or wrong--that's the way to lose
big money in the Market!  But if there are plenty of sellers it's going
to be hard to raise prices merely by "strong-hands" limiting the supply,
as has been happening quite regularly.

That reveals something of current Market dynamics.  The question is:
what does this mean to you and your strategy?  That all depends, and I
can't answer that one for you.

Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 __>_      _>__      __|_      __|_      ___>      ___>     04/23
 _>__      _>__      __|_      __|_      __|_      ___>     04/24
 _|__      _>__      __|_      _|__      __<_      ___>     04/25
 __<_      _>__      __>_      _<__      __<_      ___>     04/28
 __|_      _|__      __>_      __<_      __|_      ___>     04/29

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  04/01/03 S&P:    858
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
.... Seen it all, done it all, can't remember most of it. ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .