Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Thu Apr 17 2003 07:45 pm

I wasn't happy again today.  Prices made back what they lost yesterday,
plus a bit.  But volume dropped from +11% above average to -1% below
average.  Where were the buyers?  Once again the price rise can be
explained by constricted supply.  I guess it's not a bad thing that
holders continued to be holders, today.  But some determined buyers
willing to pay for stock would have driven prices higher.  Not to be.

Also note the Oscillator and Summation Index, they're at a level where
the Market is more likely to correct than rally even more.  The
Oscillator has been positive for the past five weeks or so, meaning the
Advance-Decline line has been positive on average.  The Summation Index
tells me this rally wasn't an optical illusion.

We're also approaching my "long term" Declining Tops Line.  You can see
most of it, through the end of last year, at my website on the "Tracking
the Market" page.  Now, a slight difference in just which points you
choose for drawing these lines can make a LARGE difference as they are
extrapolated into the future.  When last March's rally turned into a
Bear Market Bull Trap, I chose to ignore that peak and keep the same
line that so often before had turned away rally attempts, and did
subsequently.  Nevertheless, the point is that some "Market Technicians"
will be drawing these sorts of lines and making recommendations on them.
They could spook some investors.  Remember, these things are in the
nature of self-fulfilling prophecies.

All in all, if I was a Momentum Player, I think I'd be taking my
profits.  If I'd bought Spiders, SPY, around $85.80 when the S&P gave me
the Buy Signal at 858, I'd be selling around $89.40 today with the S&P
at 894.  I'd have a profit of about 4%, but in just over 2 weeks that's
not too bad.  Profits have been hard come by in recent years.  Don't let
'em get away!

Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 _<__      <___      __>_      _|__      __<_      __>_     04/11
 __>_      <___      __>_      _<__      __|_      ___>     04/14
 __>_      <___      __|_      __|_      __>_      ___>     04/15
 _>__      |___      __|_      __|_      __>_      ___>     04/16
 __>_      >___      __|_      _>__      ___>      ___>     04/17

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  04/01/03 S&P:    858
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
.... Real programmers can write FORTRAN in ANY language. ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .