Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Mon Apr 14 2003 06:49 pm

If all you looked at was closing prices this would look like a good day.
Even if you looked at the Advance-Decline line, the ratio was nearly
3:1.  But volume was even lower, -20% below average.  What's going on?

What's happinging is the "strong hands" are holding onto their stock.
The restricted supply drives prices higher--it's just the old Supply and
Demand Equation in action.  This is how the Street starts rallies!
After Main Street sees a "confirmed" rally going on, it'll think about
investing.  By the time Main Street DOES anything about it, those
"strong hands" on the Street will have a nice profit, and they'll unload
their INVENTORY on the Main Street buyers.  That's right--to you it's an
investment, to the Street it's inventory!  If you don't understand this,
get out of the Market!

That's not to say that this rally couldn't be short-circuited.  Earnings
season is the most immediate threat.

Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 _|__      _<__      __>_      _|__      __|_      __>_     04/08
 _<__      _<__      __>_      _|__      __|_      __>_     04/09
 __<_      <___      __>_      _|__      __|_      __>_     04/10
 _<__      <___      __>_      _|__      __<_      __>_     04/11
 __>_      <___      __>_      _<__      __|_      ___>     04/14

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  04/01/03 S&P:    858
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
.... Can you say BACKUP boys and girls? I knew that you could. ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .