Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Wed Apr 02 2003 05:25 pm

Today's a pretty good clue how much the Market has reacted to all the
talk about war this year.  Today was something of a mirror image of
Monday, when things didn't look so good over the weekend.  Then the
Market collapsed at the open, and continued to drift lower most of the
day.  Today the Street seemed to think the Army and Marines were about
to roll over the Republican Guard.  Prices weren't quite up to the
significance level all on their own, but Volume was also up +13% above
average.  The Advance:Decline ratio was better than 5:2.  This was a
good day on the Street.

You may have noticed that I haven't been particularly grumpy while
prices fell over the past couple weeks, volume mirrored the fall.
That's a positive sign.  Rather than being panicky sellers adding
more supply than there was demand, it's an indication that buyers were
on the sidelines.  That's not exactly good, but it's not so bad.

Now, I'm not quite as sanguine as the Street--doing all the right things
_in_ Baghdad is going to be a whole lot harder than getting there!  But
investors always tend to over react.  They over reacted to the
President's tough talk and the failure of his diplomacy.  They over
reacted today.

Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 _<__      __>_      __|_      _|__      __<_      __>_     03/27
 _<__      __>_      __|_      _|__      __|_      __>_     03/28
 _<__      __|_      _|__      __|_      __<_      __>_     03/31
 __<_      __|_      __|_      __|_      __|_      __>_     04/01
 __|_      __|_      __|_      __>_      __|_      __>_     04/02

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  04/01/03 S&P:    858
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
.... Refuse novocain - transcend dental medication. ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .