Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Thu Mar 13 2003 06:38 pm

The word is "euphoria".  That's the descripton for today's Market.
Prices were up about 28pts, and 25pts seems to be the point of
significance.  Volume was +32% above average.  By my criteria this
qualifies as an "Accumulation" day.  The Advance:Decline ratio was
better than 5:2.

I think it's a little too soon to believe any Buy signals, "one swallow
does not a summer make," but to the extent that such signals are at all
useful, the first signal after a long stretch of a continuous trend is
most significant--avoid the whip-sawing that happens with a dithering,
horizontal Market.  It's been almost two months since the last signal.

It wouldn't be surpsizing to see the Market give some of today's gains
back soon.  The NASDAQ was up over 6% today.  That would be about half
of a typical year's gains.  That's not the way it happens.

I'm also wary of suggesting a particular "reason" for the jump.  We know
investors are responding to whatever the news of the day may be.  Some
news reports suggested reports that the war would be over quickly.
There were also reports that the US couldn't muster the votes needed on
the Security Council, and pulled the most recent proposals--presumably
suggesting war under UN auspices was less likely.  How many times have I
said the Market is apolitical?  It isn't particularly taking sides, but
in recent weeks it has seemed to rally when news suggested no war.  I
think there was some pent-up buying demand.  We've been down sharply
this year, 150pts.

Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 __|_      <___      _|__      __<_      __<_      __>_     03/07
 _<__      >___      _|__      _<__      _<__      __>_     03/10
 _<__      >___      _|__      __<_      _<__      __|_     03/11
 __<_      >___      _|__      __<_      _<__      __|_     03/12
 ___|      >___      _|__      ___|      _|__      __|_     03/13

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  01/17/03 S&P:    902
Winner or Loser:  Loser                 By:     -7

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
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