Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Wed Feb 12 2003 05:59 pm

I wouldn't say Greenspan is infallible, just that he's a lot more
objective than most in Washington.  In his testimony to Congress this
week he says he still believes that without the Iraq issue, or a quick
and easy resolution, the economy will recover on its own without a lot
of stimulus, providing the politicians don't screw it up.  On the other
hand, Bush wants to juice-up the economy as much as he can--and we all
know why.  And with a Republican controlled Congress he's likely to get
whatever he wants.

Either way, it appears that the economy, earnings, and the Market should
be much improved in the forseeable future.  So why isn't the Street,
renowned for anticipating 6-9 months ahead, also looking forward to an
improved Market?  Why are we still spiraling downward in a Bear Market
freefall?  I can think of several hypotheses.

Depending on your political persuasion you're likely to chose one answer
or another.  That's the wrong thing to do!  Lay them ALL out on the
table, but don't choose any.  It isn't YOUR choice to make!  The
question is what does _the_Street_ see in the future that it doesn't
like?  Because inspite of it's apparent concentration on only the short
term news it _IS_ looking ahead.  If we can examine all the possible
answers for the Street's current attitude and correlate those to how the
Market reacts to current events, then we have a chance to get in the
swing with the Market.

Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 _<__      __>_      _<__      __|_      _|__      __<_     02/06
 _<__      __>_      _<__      _>__      <___      __<_     02/07
 __|_      __|_      _<__      _>__      _|__      __<_     02/10
 _|__      __<_      _<__      _>__      _|__      __<_     02/11
 _|__      __<_      _<__      _>__      |___      __<_     02/12

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  01/17/03 S&P:    902
Winner or Loser:  Loser                 By:     -7

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
.... They also surf, who only stand on waves.... ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .