Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Tue Feb 04 2003 05:10 pm


I read a quip that war fears drove the Market down today.  But Volume
was only 6% above average, while it's been running 10-20% above for the
past month.  So investors weren't stampeding for the door.  I think it's
more a case of just waiting.  The Market isn't going to stay in this 845
to 860 for long though.

They usually say the Market anticipates the future by 6-9 months.  Not
lately!  There's no investor confidence so it's reacting to the news day
to day.  Since none of us can predict the news of the future, waiting is
a smart thing to do.  Dollar Cost Averagers keep making deposits.  Value
Investors keep looking for real bargains, but protect themselves.
Momentum Players sit this dance out.

Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 __<_      __>_      _|__      __>_      _|__      __<_     01/29
 _|__      __>_      _|__      __>_      |___      __<_     01/30
 __>_      __>_      _|__      __>_      _>__      __<_     01/31
 __>_      __>_      _|__      __>_      _>__      __<_     02/03
 _|__      __>_      _<__      __|_      _>__      __<_     02/04

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  01/17/03 S&P:    902
Winner or Loser:  Loser                 By:     -7

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html

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