Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Wed Jan 29 2003 06:41 pm

Investors didn't seem to like the President's speech last night.  Within
minutes of opening the DJIA fell 100pts, the S&P fell 10pts, on very
heavy Volume. Through mid-day, after the Fed's decision to hold rates
steady came out, the Market fought back to a modest profit, losing a
little again when the pro's squared their books at the end.  It closed
with Volume 20% above average.  The Advance:Decline ratio was about 4:3,
positive but not greatly so.  So is this good news or bad news?  This is
where you want to look at the Price change and Volume while it was
falling and rising.  That data is a little difficult to get, but the
ratio of Up-Volume to Down-Volume was about 60%:40%.  That's positive,
but since Prices only fell for a couple hours and rose most of the day,
I'd say that was "determined" selling: more fear of war than hope for
economic improvement from the speech.  I've told you before, it doesn't
matter what your feelings of political support may be, the Street is
driven by money and emotion but not politics, except for the minor role
that plays in the emotions.

Of course, it remains to be seen how all this will play out over the
next several weeks.  I'd be choosing to stand on the sidelines, or maybe
playing the role of Value Investor as real bargains become available.
But I expect we're still in the Bear Market so I'd be unwilling to take
many losses.  My Number 1 rule is still "Don't lose big."

Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 __<_      _|__      _|__      ___>      _<__      ___|     01/23
 <___      _>__      _|__      ___>      <___      __<_     01/24
 _<__      __>_      _|__      __>_      <___      __<_     01/27
 __<_      __>_      _|__      __>_      <___      __<_     01/28
 __<_      __>_      _|__      __>_      _|__      __<_     01/29

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  01/17/03 S&P:    902
Winner or Loser:  Loser                 By:     -7

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my websites:
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
.... Gee! How'd you ever get it to do THAT? ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .