Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Mon Jan 27 2003 05:41 pm

I know what you're thinking.  You're thinking all this talk of war with
Iraq is driving this Market down.  You're thinking as soon as we can run
Saddam out of town there will be a big relief rally in this Market.
Yeah, there would be, for about 15 minutes.  That isn't going to be the
end of that problem.  As Tonto used to say, "What we do now, Kemo Sabe?"

For one thing, the Kurdish problem would immediately pop to the surface.
The Turks have a particular way they want to see that come down at odds
with the Kurds.  That opens a Pandora's Box.  There are many problems in
south Asia that are descended from the way international borders were
drawn, largely influenced by Victorian England, over resource issues,
not ethnic loyalties.  The India/Pakistan/Bangaladesh issue was just the
first to surface.  Ethnic issues were part of the Afghan problem.  There
are a lot of people in the region and internationally who are worried
about it all unravelling.

Then in this country there is still the economy and jobs issue.  Running
Saddam out of town doesn't solve these problems.  CEO's still need to
get their act together.

The point I'm making here is that even when it seems predicting the
Market is easy, it isn't.  The only thing we can do is stick to our
strategy.

Today's action?  It was another Distribution Day by my definition.
Investors were selling wholesale.  "Don't try to catch a falling knife."

Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 _<__      _|__      _|__      __|_      _<__      ___|     01/21
 _<__      _|__      _|__      ___|      _<__      ___|     01/22
 __<_      _|__      _|__      ___>      _<__      ___|     01/23
 <___      _>__      _|__      ___>      <___      __<_     01/24
 _<__      __>_      _|__      __>_      <___      __<_     01/27

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  01/17/03 S&P:    902
Winner or Loser:  Loser                 By:     -7

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my websites:
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
.... With fronds like you, who needs anemones? ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .