Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Thu Jan 23 2003 06:38 pm

Today's intraday low didn't quite make it down to my supposed Support
Level at 875 and bounced to close up a bit.  Volume was 32% above
average too, that's encouraging.  There's no guarantee that the next
move will be back up to test the 935-940 level; I wouldn't bet on it.
But it wouldn't surprize me a bit.  That's what Horizontal Trading
Ranges do.

There's a big difference between a CEO claiming (s)he doesn't have the
"visibility" to provide Earnings Guidance, and not playing that game as
management policy.  Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway doesn't do it.
In December Coca-Cola announced it wouldn't.  Now McDonald's and Sun are
quitting.  Is this a good idea?

A Progressive Insurance VP said, "We don't want our investors to worry
about day-to-day movement of security prices," and that's presumptuous.
There are now "whisper numbers" on the Street and that will continue.
But unless the company is manipulating it's earnings, as some who "make
a habit" of constantly beating estimates by a penny or two are believed
to do, the guidance we've gotten in the past really has been a guess
about the future.  And it's backed some companies into a corner, causing
major stock price losses in minutes.  That can cause major problems with
company funded retirement plans, for example.

The goal is to avoid excessive volatility, and certainly this quest to
know the future has contributed to it.  I'm not sure how effective it
will be.  Courage has always been in short supply in the human heart.
But if executives aren't going to give earnings guidance and want us to
pay more attention to the long term business of the company, then
they're going to have to give us more information about business
development and their plans to achieve those business goals.

Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 _<__      _>__      __|_      __>_      __|_      ___>     01/16
 _<__      _|__      _|__      __|_      _<__      ___>     01/17
 _<__      _|__      _|__      __|_      _<__      ___|     01/21
 _<__      _|__      _|__      ___|      _<__      ___|     01/22
 __<_      _|__      _|__      ___>      _<__      ___|     01/23

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  01/17/03 S&P:    902
Winner or Loser:  Loser                 By:     -7

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my websites:
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
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