Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Wed Jan 08 2003 06:03 pm

Call this a Distribution Day, just what the Bulls don't need.  Prices
fell -13pts.  Normally the change which I consider significant is about
26pts, but right now as low as Volatility has been it's down to 24.3pts.
Still prices were off roughly half that level, so that's more than just
a "noise" level.  Then I look at Volume, and today it's +16% above
average, again more than "noise" level.  Since Volume is more than +10%
above average, then it's either an Accumulation or Distribution day
depending on whether Prices are more than 13pts above or below the prior
day.

The question is whether it's just another day of normal Market Action,
or whether there is significant Buying or Selling?  Today there was
significant Selling.  The next question is whether that has any
predictive value?  I'd say "Some".  But the next question is what YOU
should do about it?  I can't tell you that, your investing strategy
does.  Buy, Sell, or Ignore all make sense.

Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 ___>      <___      __<_      _<__      __>_      __|_     01/02
 _>__      <___      __<_      _<__      __>_      __|_     01/03
 __>_      |___      __|_      __<_      ___>      ___|     01/06
 _>__      |___      __|_      ___<      __>_      ___|     01/07
 _>__      >___      __|_      __<_      __|_      ___>     01/08

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  01/02/03 S&P:    909
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '01-'02 and my investment strategy
study at my websites:
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
.... "Honey, where's part 5 of my 'Dada Trilogy'?" ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .