Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Wed Dec 25 2002 10:53 am

With Volume off 66% on the shortened Christmas Eve trading day, it's
almost as if it hadn't happened at all.

But I'll give you one warning from this holiday season.  The lousey
business the retailers are doing is going to haunt us in the year to
come.  And I don't think it's all the consumer's fault--he has little
reason to be optimistic in this economy.  I don't mean to be trite, but
I think the powers that be are going to have to "think outside the box"
if they're going to rescue the economy.  They have considerable
incentive to do so.

Today Prices dropped a few points, as shown on my mini-chart below--the
marker is on the negative side of the middle.  And yet the trend, which
had been flat yesterday, is now pointing to the positive side.  How can
that happen?

Well, these are very short term trends, mostly 5-days.  We can't attach
too much importance to such short term averages, but they filter out
some of the day to day chaotic motion.  Yesterday, five days back
included the 17th's close at 903.  So trying to draw a "best fit"
straight line between 903, 891, 884, 896, 897, that 903 "held up the
tail end" you might say and the line was more or less flat.  Today it's
891, 884, 896, 897, 892 and that 884 pulled it down, causing the line to
slope upward.  These are the sorts of things that happen to greater or
lesser degree with all market statistics.  We should all expect it to
happen in my Volume chart as this low Volume day works its way through
the trend.

Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 _|__      _|__      _|__      __<_      _|__      __|_     12/18
 _|__      _|__      _|__      _<__      _|__      __|_     12/19
 __<_      _>__      _|__      ___<      _<__      __|_     12/20
 __|_      _|__      _|__      |___      _|__      __|_     12/23
 _>__      _|__      _|__      <___      _>__      __|_     12/24

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  12/16/02 S&P:    891
Winner or Loser:  Loser                 By:     -19

See my market tracking charts for '00-'01 and my investment strategy
study at my websites:
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
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