Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Fri Dec 20 2002 05:58 pm

"Are you saying the reasons we are told about Market moves are made up?"
In a word, YES.  If it's necessary, if the anchor person asks "Bob, why
did the Market go up today?", they'll repeat any rumor they've heard or
make up something.

Yesterday they told us the Street was worried about war with Iraq, today
we're told they are "so relieved" that it won't happen till January.
What's that?  A week and a half?

The answer they should give is, "Well, Dan, it's been said for years
'the Market will fluctuate'.  Day to day changes usually mean little or
nothing.  It's a really stupid question to ask."  That wouldn't stop the
questions, of course.  They'd just shift to another "guru" that WILL
tell the news reporters something that sounds knowledgable and
important.  What they won't do is examine their assumption that there is
_a_ reason for daily Market action.  And that betrays their desire for
predictability.

But asking WHAT the Market did is an entirely different question!  Today
it went up a little (only 8pts when it would take more like 26pts to be
significant on its own) on 30% better than average Volume.  The NYSE
Advance:Decline ratio was about 2:1, so most stocks participated.  Those
are generally taken as positive actions.  But, all in all, it really
doesn't mean much.

Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 __|_      |___      __|_      _<__      __|_      ___|     12/16
 _|__      |___      __|_      _<__      _|__      ___|     12/17
 _|__      _|__      _|__      __<_      _|__      __|_     12/18
 _|__      _|__      _|__      _<__      _|__      __|_     12/19
 __<_      _>__      _|__      ___<      _<__      __|_     12/20

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  12/16/02 S&P:    891
Winner or Loser:  Loser                 By:     -19

See my market tracking charts for '00-'01 and my investment strategy
study at my websites:
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
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