Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Wed Dec 18 2002 07:05 pm

The Market was a little more active today, but still Volume just barely
exceeded average.  My Timing Signal reversed itself yet again, but that
is expected.

Over the past couple weeks the Market has come back to this 890 area a
few times and bounced up.  That begins to appear to create a Support
Line.  I think I'd rather draw a Support Line down at 875.  I can see
several times since early August when the Market has bounced up off
Corrections down to the 875-880 area.

What does it mean, though?  I could say, "It would be perfectly normal
for the Market to correct down to that level and still have the current
Horizontal Trading Range remain in effect."  Something like that is
often said, but it implies that these Chart Patterns exert some sort of
controlling influence over Market action.  But, for the typical Main
Street investor I think that sort of analysis puts the cart before the
horse.

I believe we need to look at these as opportunities for investors who do
believe in Technical Analysis to create a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Now, to be sure, some of the Wall Street big money managers have lots of
formulas they use for "Market Value", which will affect their action.
Second, we might see this effect when Prices bounce at certain levels.

But Charts just reflect what the Market does, they don't control it!

Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 _<__      <___      _|__      _<__      __|_      ___|     12/12
 _<__      <___      _|__      _<__      __|_      ___|     12/13
 __|_      |___      __|_      _<__      __|_      ___|     12/16
 _|__      |___      __|_      _<__      _|__      ___|     12/17
 _|__      _|__      _|__      __<_      _|__      __|_     12/18

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  12/16/02 S&P:    891
Winner or Loser:  Loser                 By:     -19

See my market tracking charts for '00-'01 and my investment strategy
study at my websites:
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
.... Be careful what you wish for, you might get it. ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .