Subj : Market Action
To : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Wed Dec 18 2002 09:30 am
"It's unnatural!" The most noticable thing about my charts at the
moment is how constricted Volume has been over the past 9 sessions, a
day less than two weeks. The slowest day was 1222Ms, and the biggest
only 1259Ms--a range of only 37Ms. Over the past couple years, it
appears generally there's usually been a range of something like 200Ms
in a two week period. Back in March, May, August and September it looks
like we under 1200Ms for a couple weeks, so it isn't that recent volume
is unnaturally low. It's that it isn't changing--of course, Prices
aren't changing much either. Volatility is low. The Advance-Decline
line has been hovering around even, meaning the Summation Index is also
dead-level flat. I'm not sure how to account for it, except to wonder
if this is evidence that the big money managers, funds, etc., are
uncertain, so are "standing pat" with what they have.
The Market can't stand still long. So which way will it jump when it
finally gets spooked? You know I don't know. But I will point to the
Summation Index which says the NYSE has been Advancing. It's barely
into "very positive" territory. It could go higher. It could stay here
longer. But I'd say that unless the Recession is REALLY and OBVIOUSLY
over, and it's "laissez le bon temps roulez"(1) as they'd say in New
Orleans, I'd be ready to protect myself from a possible correction.
Just ready, mind you--it might be over. And I'd watch out I didn't get
faked out by the January Effect. Maybe we should have learned our
lesson already, but I expect there will be a lot of anticipation that
next year will be better.
(1) Let the good times roll.
Price Vola- Momen- Volume Oscil- Summ.
Change tility tum lator Index
-__+ -__+ -__+ -__+ -__+ -__+
__<_ _<__ __|_ _<__ __|_ ___| 12/11
_<__ <___ _|__ _<__ __|_ ___| 12/12
_<__ <___ _|__ _<__ __|_ ___| 12/13
__|_ |___ __|_ _<__ __|_ ___| 12/16
_|__ |___ __|_ _<__ _|__ ___| 12/17
Timing Signals: I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch. If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!! It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)
Last Signal: BUY Date: 12/16/02 S&P: 910
Winner or Loser: tbd By: tbd
See my market tracking charts for '00-'01 and my investment strategy
study at my websites:
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
.... Entropy isn't what it used to be.
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* Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360)
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