Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Mon Dec 16 2002 06:59 pm 

Yet another reversal in my timing signal.  The Market has been flat, and
in this environment my Timing Signal can whipsaw.  There's one small
problem with this one--Volume didn't jump.  So with every Price jump or
plunge we must ask "Di'ja mean it?"  And today's Volume, 11% below
average, basically stuck at the same levels of the past week and a half,
says "Mean what?"

If you're going to invest in stocks you have to understand the supply
and demand effect on prices.  Prices can rise just because they are held
by "strong hands", major holders who are restricting the supply.  Today
investors paid up for stocks, but WHY?  Window dressing for year end?  I
don't see evidence of a "Rally".

I saw someone quoted suggesting the Market had been oversold as an
explanation.  The funny thing is they mentioned Volume too.  But this
kind of Volume doesn't make this a Rally!  Manipulation is more like the
word that comes to mind.

Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 __<_      _|__      __|_      _<__      __|_      ___>     12/10
 __<_      _<__      __|_      _<__      __|_      ___|     12/11
 _<__      <___      _|__      _<__      __|_      ___|     12/12
 _<__      <___      _|__      _<__      __|_      ___|     12/13
 __|_      |___      __|_      _<__      __|_      ___|     12/16

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  12/16/02 S&P:    910
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '00-'01 and my investment strategy
study at my websites:
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
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