Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Mon Dec 09 2002 03:27 pm

Too cold for Snow?  The President announced his new Treasury nominee,
John Snow, CEO of CSX, but it failed to stop the Market's slide.  My
Timing Signal said SELL today.

It was said the President wants more tax cuts and wants yes-men around
him who will agree.  It was also said he wants people "who have the
confidence of the marketplace."  I don't believe those are the same
thing.

There is a problem.  These appointments are political--certain factions
have been driving the public sector to increasing Politicization and
Polarization holding Positions on Principle come hell or high-water.
The Street is apolitical.  All it cares about is the ability to make
money off the ebb and flow of the Market, and the state of the economy
on which that ultimately depends, in which it plays a role.  You may
remember what happened in July when the Street decided to register its
displeasure that the Administration was acting too slowly on the
corporate governance issue.  We dropped over 100pts, nearly 12% in four
days.  If the Street decides that these political appointments and the
tax cuts are NOT good for the economy in the long run, I think it has
the power to scotch this Administration by leaving Wall Street to the
Bear.  The President isn't the only player in this game, and he doesn't
hold the trump cards.

There is another P-word I've used on this issue, but it isn't one I've
seen much evidence of lately, Pragmatism.  The President can be right,
dead right.  But can he bring himself to do what's necessary?

Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 _|__      _>__      __|_      _<__      __|_      ___>     12/03
 _<__      _|__      __|_      __<_      __<_      ___>     12/04
 _<__      _|__      __|_      _|__      _<__      ___>     12/05
 __<_      _|__      __|_      _<__      __<_      ___>     12/06
 _<__      _|__      _|__      _<__      _<__      ___>     12/07

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  12/09/02 S&P:    892
Winner or Loser:  Winner                By:     +9

See my market tracking charts for '00-'01 and my investment strategy
study at my websites:
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
.... I know when I'm out of my league. I just don't care. ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .