Subj : Area Forecast Discussion For Tri Cities, TN/VA To : All From : Sean Dennis Date : Wed Dec 10 2025 19:00:01 303 FXUS64 KMRX 102327 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 627 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 ....New AVIATION... ..KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 616 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 - Strong gusty winds this afternoon will subside later today into tonight. - NW flow snow event expected later today through early Thursday with accumulating snow mainly over parts of the E TN mountains and higher terrain of southwest Virgina. - Low chances of precipitation across the north Friday night into Saturday. - Stronger surge of cold air will arrive for Sunday into Monday. Lows in the teens with some higher elevation single digits expected Monday morning. Lower wind chills will add to the cold. && ..DISCUSSION... Issued at 1228 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 The strong gusty winds that are ongoing over our area ahead of an approaching cold front will subside later this afternoon into tonight after the front exits to our east. Winds have already gusted over 50 at Cove Mountain, and we have seen gusts to around 40 at the TYS airport. The wind advisory will be allowed to continue as it is for now. While moisture is limited, we will see some rain showers around the time of the frontal passage, then as much colder air pushes in we will see a rapid changeover to snow showers over the higher terrain, and the valleys will likely see some snow showers and/or snow flurries as well overnight. The normally favored orographic lift areas of the mountains will see accumulating snow in the northwest flow and cold advection overnight into Thursday, with amounts of 1 to 3 inches likely in many of these upslope higher elevation locations especially at elevations above 2500 feet. Locally higher amounts may occur in a few of the highest mountain peaks. The winter weather advisory for parts of SW VA and the E TN mountains will be continued as is. A few locations across the northern half of the TN valley may see some light accumulations of less than an inch, but most valley areas are expected to see no accumulation or just a dusting. Following the snow's exit Thursday, a short-lived cool-down can be expected with drier conditions throughout the day and decreasing clouds. However, a weak system will bring increased chances for precipitation to northern parts of the area late Thursday night into Friday. Meanwhile, upper heights will be rising which will bring the warmer temperatures back for Friday and Saturday. Models generally agree on a stronger cold front moving through Saturday night followed by an area of cold high pressure with its origins in Alaska and Western Canada. Current ensemble data suggests little precipitation, but much colder air will move in behind the front for Sunday and Monday. Monday morning lows are currently forecast to be in the teens across the majority of the valley and Plateau with some single digits for the highest elevations of the mountains and parts of southwest Virginia. It currently appears winds will be on the decline once we get later in the night Sunday into Monday, which is good news and may suppress what could be much worse wind chills. High pressure will eventually shift eastward but will keep us dry through at least early Tuesday. Another system may approach by Wednesday, so Pops will tick up once again by the end of the period. && ..AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 616 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 Light rain will continue off and on for the next few hours. After midnight a changeover to light snow can be expected near TRI. Snow chances are lower near TYS. CHA looks dry after midnight. MVFR CIGs are likely at TRI and TYS and will linger late into the morning despite a cold frontal passage late tonight or early morning. Winds have decreased at the surface but are still around 30 knots at 2k feet, so LLWS was added for the next few hours. Winds will decrease through the night and become more westerly or northwesterly. && ..PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 29 46 30 58 / 10 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 30 41 31 54 / 30 10 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 29 41 30 54 / 20 10 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 28 35 26 46 / 70 20 30 30 && ..MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for Blount Smoky Mountains- Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky Mountains- Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi. VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for Russell- Washington VA-Wise. && $$ DISCUSSION...99 AVIATION...McD --- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64) * Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1) .