Subj : Area Forecast Discussion For Tri Cities, TN/VA To : All From : Sean Dennis Date : Mon Dec 08 2025 19:00:01 455 FXUS64 KMRX 082329 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 629 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025 ....New AVIATION... ..KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 623 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025 - Light precipitation continues across northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia. Additional minor accumulations of snowfall will be possible into the early evening hours in the higher elevations. - Cold morning temperatures expected over the upcoming weekend with sub-freezing temperatures likely area-wide and wind chills in the teens for parts of northeast TN and southwest VA. && ..DISCUSSION... Issued at 1247 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025 Currently light precipitation is still ongoing across northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia. The majority of this precipitation is coming down as very cold rain, but a few web cameras and surface observations are showing that temperatures are cold enough that light flurries are mixed in with the rain. Not expecting very much more snow for the rest of today, but some of the peaks of the East Tennessee mountains could pick up almost another inch or so before this shortwave finally exits the region heading into tonight. Will maintain the Winter Weather Advisory mainly due to some poor driving conditions as the locations where it is snowing is also showing low visibilities and likely slick spots on the roads. Heading into tomorrow we should be a bit warmer with some breaks in the clouds expected under generally zonal flow allowing the sun to shine down at times. We'll climb above the 50 degree mark for most places on Wednesday as surface winds turn more southerly in addition to the sun still making it's way through breaks in the clouds. Next weather system is expected to move in towards the end of the work week as a low spins through the Great Lakes Region and drags along a cold front. The air coming in from this system is more of a continental air mass and the moisture is therefore fairly limited. So the best chances to see precipitation will likely be in the higher terrain where cold temperatures combine with orographic lift to squeeze out any water the atmosphere is carrying. For the majority of the eastern Tennessee Valley the biggest impacts will be the chilly temperatures behind the front as we head into the weekend. Probabilistic and deterministic guidance has started to trend slightly "warmer" with this system as the coldest air might stay further to our north. It will still be pretty chilly in the mornings this weekend, but we may be looking at widespread 20's instead of widespread teens for overnight lows. With the much drier air associated with this system we'll likely get a longer period of sunshine to try and take the edge off the morning frost. && ..AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 623 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025 Main concerns for the TAF period will be potential for MVFR or brief IFR cigs into the late morning at TRI/TYS. Highest confidence is at TRI, with lower confidence at TYS where a scenario of fluctuating low VFR to MVFR cigs seems more likely. MVFR cigs at CHA will gradually clear to low VFR over the next few hours. All sites will be VFR with southwesterly winds less than 10kts by late morning into tomorrow afternoon. && ..PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 28 51 36 56 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 27 47 36 54 / 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 26 46 36 53 / 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 24 42 29 49 / 10 0 0 20 && ..MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Unicoi. VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Russell- Washington VA-Wise. && $$ DISCUSSION...99 AVIATION...99 --- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64) * Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1) .